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Will US efforts to deescalate the Israel-Hamas conflict be effective? Experts weigh in_我的网站

A |     Sophie 编译 奥克兰市议会表示，多达三分之一的公共交通服务可能会被取消，或者票价将不得不翻倍，以弥补政府提出的不太有利的投资政策所造成的缺口。         官员们表示，模型显示，根据联合政府提议的交通政策声明，市议会的预算缺口高达5亿纽币。    Following Hamas' attack on Israel, the United States has sent a clear message of deterrence to prevent the conflict from spreading.To "anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation," President Joe Biden said during an address on Tuesday, "I have one word: Don't."The rhetoric has since been repeated by others in the administration, with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan telling reporters that they believe militia groups across the region "pose an urgent threat" and could "choose to try to exploit" the situation.On ABC News Live at 8:30 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next."We have been sending clear warnings that doing so will result in a firm response and consequences from the United States," Sullivan said Tuesday.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday there's a "long list of actors in the region that are hostile to Israel," including Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group.The administration has also offered its full support to Israel, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin telling reporters in Brussels on Thursday that the U.S. is not placing conditions on the military aid it's providing to Israel. The U.S. additionally moved a carrier strike group into the eastern Mediterranean as part of its deterrence measures."We're sending a loud and clear message: The United States is ready to take action should any actor hostile to Israel consider trying to escalate or widen this war," Kirby said Wednesday.How impactful those gestures will be on the raging war remains uncertain. The U.S. has limited leverage in the region, though does need to be careful to not further escalate the conflict, foreign policy experts said. The Biden administration is also likely keen to not get heavily involved, experts said."If Hezbollah or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or some other militant group from a neighboring country decides to get involved and attack Israel at this time, I don't think the United States is going to do anything more than it's currently doing -- which is offering Israel whatever it needs to defend itself," Ralph Carter, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.Biden has historically been "cautious" in sending U.S. troops into battle, Carter said. "His experience in Washington over 40 years or more suggests that once you start something like that, you have no idea where it's going to end."Kirby said Thursday that there are no active plans or intentions to send U.S. troops to join a potential ground war in Israel and Gaza. The U.S. has deployed its largest carrier group, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the region as an act of deterrence, officials said."The United States has moved military assets in the region, but I really do find it doubtful that the Biden administration really wants to get heavily involved militarily," Russell Lucas, a professor of international relations and global studies at Michigan State University, told ABC News.Israel's powerful military is also capable of defending itself against Hamas and other militant groups, experts noted, which may limit what it needs from the U.S. and act as another deterrent."The requirements on the U.S. defense industry I think are maybe not as heavy as they might be if we were talking about a weaker ally," Adria Lawrence, the Aronson Associate Professor of International Studies and Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, said during a public briefing on the conflict.In recent days there have been some limited military engagements on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, though Hezbollah may be deterred from getting drawn into a larger conflict with Israel, experts said."They will pay dearly for entering the conflict," Lucas said. "I think most actors [in the region] know that at the end of the day, the most military-capable actor is Israel, so there is a deterrence factor."Given Israel's known military prowess, the Biden administration's rhetoric may be stronger than necessary, Lucas said."I think it's more the Biden administration is aiming especially at the domestic audience -- trying to reassert that kind of bully pulpit of the commander-in-chief role, especially in the face of perhaps critiques from the Republican Party that Biden isn't strong enough," he said.At the same time, the U.S. does need to be careful about making any threats, experts said."Words matter and if President Biden's making a commitment and making kind of an implicit threat, he needs to remember the risks that are inherent in making a red line," Lucas said. "President Obama's red line in Syria -- do not use chemical weapons -- that was then not followed up was viewed as one of Obama's biggest foreign policy failures."Sarah Parkinson, the Aronson Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Studies at JHU, said during the university's briefing that these comments by U.S. officials "will likely embolden extremists on both sides" and prolong the conflict.Following Biden's remarks, Hezbollah said they will not back down and are "ready for confrontation," while the top leader of the Islamist armed organization Houthis in Yemen said that if the U.S. intervenes militarily in Gaza, they will send munitions and fighters to support Hamas.In efforts to deescalate the conflict, the U.S. could help mobilize other countries in the region, according to James Steinberg, the dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at JHU and former Deputy Secretary of State during the Obama administration."It's not that the United States itself is going to broker a resolution of this, but it can engage others, all of whom have a stake in not seeing the situation escalate," Steinberg said during the university's briefing, noting the discussions that have been taking place between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others.Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Israel that they are working with their partners in the region to ensure "that there will not be a second front or a third front."Steinberg said a wider war "can't be ruled out," and the effectiveness of the U.S.' response to deescalate is "uncertain" -- likening it to its support of Israel in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War."Here as then, the United States has limited impact and limited leverage," he said. "Perhaps even less so today than it did in 1973."。         Advertise with us          这一“严峻”的结果引发了交通部长Simeon Brown和新西兰最大的地方议会之间的冲突，市议会告诉部长，这是他需要对交通预算做出 “最重要改变” 的一个问题。         如果资金不足，最坏的情况下票价会上涨或者服务被削减，也可能进一步提高地税。

B |          政府已经宣布将投入200多亿纽币来“让交通回到正轨”，其中一些资金来自车辆登记注册费和燃油税的上涨。

C |          目前，奥克兰的公共汽车和渡轮的客流量已恢复到大流行前的水平，而火车客流量由于服务一再中断而滞后。         市议会官员表示，如果没有进一步的补充，运营资金缺口将在8000万至5亿纽币之间，这取决于政府提出的全国公共交通补贴的上下限。         市议会交通委员会主席John Watson表示，现在的票价已经“太高”，进一步提价将“适得其反”。         北岸市议员Richard Hills说，提高票价或削减公交服务的选择将加剧道路拥堵，给城市带来“可怕的后果”。

D |          Hills表示，如果服务减少30%，模型显示每周乘坐公共交通工具的人数将减少60多万。         “现在，超过50%的早晨通过海港大桥的人是乘坐公共汽车。你能想象有一半的公交车用户换成自己开车吗？”          “我可以打赌，今天早上和我一起坐公交车的90个人中，有一半人都负担不起到市中心单程10纽币的车费。

E | 4.45纽币已经很贵了，Franklin和Rodney等地的票价还要更贵。”          市议会官员警告说，要弥补全部缺口，票价必须上涨22%到136%，否则现有服务将被削减三分之一。         如果现有票价上涨136%，那么从Takapuna到CBD的高峰往返票价将在21纽币左右，从Papakura到市中心的往返票价约为34纽币。         削减服务“可能会导致交通拥堵加剧，尤其是在高峰时段。许多基本公共交通也可能需要削减，许多地区可能会完全失去公交服务”，有官员写道。         市议会警告说，奥克兰交通局（AT）也将无法全额资助支持城市铁路线（CRL）和东部公交专用道完工后的新服务。         相关阅读：          奥克兰人和惠灵顿人注意！这些公共交通优惠快要取消了          重磅！新西兰政府将取消这项优惠，数十万人受影响          国家党：如若胜选，将取消这些票价优惠          注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。         chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有          (责编：Sophie)          相关内容                一定会减税！政府发布首个预算政策声明           一到放假就下雨！这个长周末，天气不太美啊……           2023年下半年世界华文传媒新媒体影响力榜：新西兰中文先驱社媒全球Top 3！           新西兰国会系统遭中国黑客攻击？中使馆：已提出严正交涉           奥克兰人和惠灵顿人注意！这些公共交通优惠快要取消了           四名丰盛湾青少年开着从罗托鲁瓦偷的车，被奥克兰警方追捕           复活节长周末将迎来寒冷天气？看看最新预报怎么说           6人开着三辆车撞击酒铺抢劫未遂，这座城市偷车猖獗。

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